Vol. 4 (2018): núm. especial, vol. 4
Artículos

Impacto del consumo de energía y del valor agregado de las manufacturas en el crecimiento económico de los países que integran el TLCAN: un modelo de datos panel cointegrado con cambio estructural

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  • Héctor F. Salazar Núñez,
  • Francisco Venegas Martínez
Héctor F. Salazar Núñez
Universidad Panamericana
Francisco Venegas Martínez
Instituto Politécnico Nacional
Bio
núm. especial, vol. 3
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24275/ETYPUAM/NE/E042018/Salazar
Published August 3, 2018

Copyright (c) 2018 Economía teoría y práctica

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Abstract

Esta investigación estudia las relaciones entre el consumo de energía, el valor agregado de las manufacturas y el crecimiento económico para los países integrantes del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN), antes y después de la firma de este tratado. Para ello se utiliza la metodología de datos panel cointegrados con cambio estructural durante el periodo 1970-2015. El método de estimación utilizado es el de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios totalmente modificados. La evidencia empírica encontrada sugiere que el valor agregado de las manufacturas mantiene una relación causal de tipo bidireccional con el producto interno bruto (PIB) en el corto plazo y neutral con el consumo de energía. Sin embargo, en el largo plazo las variables explicativas tienen una relación causal unidireccional hacia el PIB. Por último, se analiza la estabilidad estructural del modelo en el largo plazo, mediante la estimación de los residuos recursivos, encontrando que después de la firma del tlcan se presentó un cambio estructural.
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