Crecimiento endógeno y demanda agregada: un análisis de panel de la Unión Monetaria Europea
Abstract
El objetivo principal de este artículo es cuantificar la elasticidad de la tasa natural de crecimiento (gn) vis-à-vis las fluctuaciones de la demanda agregada de las economías que conforman la Unión Monetaria Europea. A tal efecto, se emplea un modelo de errores estándar corregidos para panel aplicado a datos de 18 países de la eurozona para el periodo 1980-2012. Los resultados sugieren que la gn comporta una elasticidad positiva –si bien distinta para cada país– respecto a la tasa de crecimiento observada del producto en el largo plazo. A la luz de estas estimaciones es posible evaluar los efectos de las políticas de deflación salarial y austeridad fiscal que el BCE, la CE, el FMI y los mercados financieros han implementado en los países europeos que experimentan una crisis de deuda soberana.
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