Vol. 1 (2009): núm. especial, vol. 1
Artículos

Cambio tecnológico y crecimiento económico: Algunas lecciones de pautas seculares y algunas conjeturas sobre el impacto actual de las TIC

PDF (Español (España))
  • Carolina Castaldi,
  • Giovanni Dosi
Carolina Castaldi
Escuela Santa Ana de Estudios Avanzados y Universidad de Groningen
Bio
Giovanni Dosi
Universidad de Sussex; Universidad de Columbia y Escuela de Santa Ana de Estudios Avanzados de Pisa
Bio
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24275/ETYPUAM/NE/E012009/Castaldi
Published November 1, 2009
Copyright Notice

Abstract

Este ensayo discute la relación entre las pautas de cambio tecnológico y el desarrollo económico desde una perspectiva evolutiva. Aquí sostenemos que las modalidades y el ritmo de tales dinámicas conjuntas están sumamente influidas por el surgimiento de nuevos paradigmas o regímenes tecnoeconómicos. Las tic son las impulsoras del paradigma actual, el cual, nos proponemos mostrar, está todavía en un estadio de difusión incipiente, particularmente en los países en desarrollo. A partir de la evidencia histórica, argumentamos que la aproximación de los países en desarrollo depende decisivamente de su capacidad para dominar la tecnología inherente al paradigma tecnoeconómico dominante. Más adelante discutimos las amenazas y las oportunidades relativas a una posible ruta de desarrollo con base en las TIC.
PDF (Español (España))

References

  1. ACIMU (2001), Rapporto di settore 2001, Associazione Costruttori Italiani Macchine Utensili, Robot e Automazione.
  2. Amsden, A. H. (1989), Asia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  3. Arcangeli, F., G. Dosi, y Moggi (1991), “Patterns of diffusion of electronics technologies: An international comparison with special reference to the Italian case”, Research Policy, núm. 20, pp. 515-529.
  4. Archibugi, D., J. Howells, y J. Michie (2001), Innovation Policy in a Global Economy, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  5. Archibugi, D., y Pietrobelli (2003), “The globalisation of technology and its implications for developing countries. Windows of opportunity or further burden?”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, núm. 70, pp. 861-883.
  6. Bartelsman, E. J., y M. Doms (2000), “Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata”, Journal of Economic Literature, núm. 38, Vol. 3, pp. 569-594.
  7. Bassanini, A., y S. Scarpetta (2002), “Growth, technological change, and ict diffusion: recent evidence from oecd countries”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, núm. 18, pp. 324-344.
  8. Baumol, W. (1967), “Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: the Anatomy of an Urban Crisis”, American Economic Review, núm. 57, pp. 415-426.
  9. Bell, M., y K. Pavitt (1993), “Technological Accumulation and Industrial Growth: Contrasts between Developed and Developing Countries”, Industrial and Corporate Change, Vol. 2, pp. 157-210.
  10. Berger, S., y R. Dore, (1996), National Diversity and Global Capitalism, Ithaca y Londres, Cornell University Press.
  11. Bordo, M. D., A. M. Taylor, y J. G. Williamson (comps.) (2003), Globalization in Historical Perspective, Chicago y Londres, University of Chicago Press.
  12. Bourguignon, F., V. Levin, y D. Rosenblatt (2004), “Declining International Inequality and Economic Divergence: Reviewing the Evidence through Different Lenses”, Economie Internationale, núm. 100, pp. 13-15.
  13. Bresnahan, T., y M. Trajtenberg (1995), “General purpose technologies: Engines of Growth”, Journal of Econometrics, núm. 65, pp. 83-108.
  14. Brynjolfsson, E., y L. M. Hitt (1995), “Information technology as a factor of production: the role of differences among firms”, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, núm. 3, Vol. 4, pp. 183-200.
  15. Brynjolfsson, E., A. Renshaw, y M. van Alstyne (1997), “The Matrix of Change”, Sloan Management Review, invierno, pp. 37-54.
  16. Brynjolfsson, E., y L. M. Hitt (2000), “Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, núm. 14, Vol. 4, pp. 23-48.
  17. Brynjolfsson, E., y (2002), “Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, febrero, pp. 339-376.
  18. Cantwell, J. (1992), “The Internationalization of Technological Activity and its Implications for Competitiveness”, en O. Granstrand, L. Hakanson, y S. Sjolander (comps.), Technology, Management and International Business, Chichetser y Nueva York, Wiley.
  19. Cantwell, J. y O. Janne (1999), “Technological globalization and innovative centres: The role of corporate technological leadership and locational hierarchy”, Research Policy, núm. 28, pp. 119-144.
  20. Castaldi, C., M. Cimoli, N. Correa, y G. Dosi (2004), “Technological Learning, Policy Regimes and Growth in a ‘Globalized Economy’: General Patterns and the Latin American Experience”, Documento de Trabajo, enero, Escuela de Estudios Avanzados Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italia, de próxima aparición en Cimoli, M., G. Dosi, y J. Stiglitz (comps), Industrial policies and development, Oxford University Press.
  21. Castaldi, C., y G. Dosi (2007), “The patterns of output growth of firms and countries: new evidence on scale invariances and specificities”, lem Working Paper 2004/18, Escuela de Estudios Avanzados Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italia.
  22. Cimoli, M., y G. Dosi (1995), “Technological paradigms, patterns of learning and development: an introductory roadmap”, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, núm. 5, pp. 243-268.
  23. Cimoli, M., G. Dos., R. Nelson, y J. Stiglitz (2006), “Institutions and Policies Shaping Industrial Development: An Introductory Note”, lem Working Paper, febrero.
  24. Cipolla, C. M. (1965), Guns and Sails in the Early Phase of European Expansion, 1400- 1700, Londres, Collins.
  25. Clark, G., y R. Feenstra (2003), “Technology in the Great Divergence”, en Bordo, M. D., A. M. Taylor, y J. G. Williamson, (comps.), Globalization in Historical Perspective, Chicago y Londres, University of Chicago Press.
  26. Colecchia, A., y P. Schreyer, (2002), “ict Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case? A Comparative Study of Nine oecd Countries”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 5, pp. 408-442.
  27. Coriat, B. (2002), “The New Global Intellectual Property Rights Regime and its Imperial Dimension. Implications for “North/South”, presentado en el seminario Nuevas Rutas de Desarrollo, organizado por bndes, Rio de Janeiro, septiembre, núm. 12-13.
  28. Daveri, F. (2002), “The New Economy in Europe, 1992-2001”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, octubre, pp. 345-362.
  29. David, P. A. (1990), “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective of the Modern Productivity Paradox”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, núm. 80, pp. 355-361.
  30. David, P. A. (2001), “Understanding Digital Technology’s Evolution and the Path of Measured Productivity Growth: Present and Future in the Mirror of the Past”, mit Press, en E. Brynolfsson, y B. Kahin (comps), Understanding the Digital Economy, Cambridge, Ma.
  31. DeLong, B. J. (1988), “Productivity growth, convergence and welfare”, American Economic Review, núm. 78, pp. 1138-1154.
  32. Doms, M. E., T. Dunne, y K. Troske (1997), “Workers, wages and technology”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112:1, pp. 253-290.
  33. Dosi, G. (1982), “Technological paradigms and technological trajectories: A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change”, Research Policy, núm. 11, Vol. 3, pp. 147-162.
  34. Dosi, G. (1988), “Sources, procedures and microeconomic effects of innovation”, Journal of Economic Literature, núm. 26, pp. 1120-1171.
  35. Dosi, G., C. Freeman, y S. Fabiani (1994), “The process of economic development: introducing some stylized facts and theories on technologies, firms and institutions”, Industrial and Corporate Change, núm. 3, pp. 1-45.
  36. Dosi, G., L. Orsenigo, y M. Sylos Labini (2003), “Technology and the Economy”, en J. N., Smelser y R. Swedberg (comps), Handbook of Economic Sociology, 2a. ed.
  37. Dosi, G., K. Pavitt y L. Soete (1990), The Economics of Technical Change and International Trade, Londres, Harvester Wheatsheaf.
  38. Dowrick, S., y B. DeLong (2003), “Globalization and Convergence”, en Bordo, M. D., A. M., Taylor, y J. G. Williamson (comps.), Globalization in Historical Perspective, Chicago y Londres, University of Chicago Press.
  39. Draca, M., R. Sadun, y J. van Reenen (2007), “Productivity and ICT: A review of the evidence”, en Mansell et al. (comp.).
  40. Dunning, J. H. (1993), “Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy”, AddisonWesley.
  41. Durlauf, S. N., y P. A. Johnson (1992), “Local versus global convergence across national economies”, nber Working Paper, núm. 3996.
  42. Durlauf, S. N., y D. Quah (1998), The new empirics of economic growth, School of Economics, Center for Economic Performance, Discussion Paper, núm. 384, Londres.
  43. Easterly, W., R. King, R. Levine, y S. Rebelo (1992), How do national policies affect long-run growth? A research agenda, Banco Mundial, documento de discusión.
  44. Fagerberg, J. (1988), Why growth rates differ”, en G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg, y L. Soete, Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter Publisher, Londres.
  45. Foster, L., J. Haltiwanger, y C. J. Krizan (2002), “The Link between Aggregate and Micro Productivity Growth: Evidence from Retail Trade”, nber Working Paper, 9120.
  46. Freeman, C. (1982), The Economics of Industrial Innovation, Londres, Francis Pinter.
  47. Freeman, C. (1995), “The National System of Innovation in Historical Perspective”, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 19, pp. 5-24.
  48. Freeman, C. (2001), “A hard landing for the `New Economy’? Information technology and the United States national system of innovation”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, vol. 12, pp. 115-139.
  49. Freeman, C. (2002), “Continental, national and sub-national innovation systems-complementarity and economic growth”, Research Policy, Vol. 31, pp. 191-211.
  50. Freeman, C., y C. Pérez (1988), “Structural crises of adjustment: business cycles and investment behavior”, en G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. Nelson, G. Silverberg, y L. Soete (comps.), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Londres, Pinter.
  51. GGDC (2006), “Total Economy Database”, http://www.ggdc.net, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
  52. Greenan, N., J. Mairesse, y A. Topiol-Bensaid (2001), “Information Technology and Research and Development Impact on Productivity and Skills: Looking for Correlations on French Firm Level Data”, en Pohjola, M. (comp.), Information Technology Productivity and Economic Growth, Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp. 119-148.
  53. Greenstein, S., y J. Prince (2007), “Internet diffusion and the geography of the digital divide in the United States”, en Mansell et al. (comps.).
  54. Gordon, R. J. (2003), “Hi-tech innovation and productivity growth: does supply create its own demand?”, nber Working Paper, 9437.
  55. Hollingsworth, R., y R. Boyer (comps.) (1997), Contemporary Capitalism: The Embeddedness of Institutions, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  56. ITU (2003), Telecommunication indicators, International Telecommunication Union.
  57. Kim, L. (1993), “National system of industrial innovation: dynamics of capability building in Korea”, en R. Nelson (comps.), National Innovation Systems, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  58. Laursen, K. (2000), Trade Specialisation, Technology and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from Advanced Countries, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, Reino Unido.
  59. Lazonick, W. (2007) “Globalization of the ict force”, en Mansell et al. (eds.).
  60. Lundvall, B. A. (1992). National Systems of Innovation: Towards a Theory of Innovation and Interactive Learning, Londres, Pinter Publisher.
  61. Maddison, A. (2001), The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, París, OCDE.
  62. Mansell, R., C. Avgerou, D. Quah, y R. Silverstone (2007), The Oxford Handbook of Information and Communication Technologies, Oxford University Press.
  63. Melchior, A., y K. Telle (2001), “Convergence and marginalization”, Forum for Development Studies, núm. 28, pp.75-98.
  64. Melchior, A. (2001), Technology, Trade and Growth in oecd Countries, London, Nueva York, Routledge.
  65. Milgrom, P. R., D. C. North, y B. R. Weingast (1990), “The Role of Institutions in the Revival of Trade: the Law Merchant, Private Judges, and the Champagne Fairs”, Economics and Politics, núm. 2, pp. 1-23.
  66. OCDE (2002), Measuring the Information Economy, París.
  67. OCDE (2003), International Trade and Competitiveness Indicators, 2a. ed., París.
  68. OCDE (2004), The economic impact of ict, París.
  69. OCDE (2005 a), Economic Outlook, 2a. ed., París.
  70. OCDE (2005 b), Main Science and Technology Indicators 2005/2, París.
  71. OCDE (2006), Information Technology Outlook, París.
  72. Oliner, y Sichel (2000), “The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, núm.14, pp. 3-22.
  73. ONU (2001), Human Development Report, Naciones Unidas.
  74. Pasinetti, L. (1981), Structural Change and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Essay on the Dynamics of the Wealth of Nations, Cambridge, Press Cambridge University.
  75. Patel, P., y K. Pavitt (1994), “(Uneven and divergent) technological accumulation among advanced countries: evidence and a framework of explanation”, Industrial and Corporate Change, núm. 3, pp. 759-787.
  76. Patel, P., y K. Pavitt (1997), “The technological competencies of world’s largest firms: complex and path-dependent, but not much variety”, Research Policy, núm. 26, pp. 141-56.
  77. Pavitt, K., y L. Soete (1981), “International differences in economic growth and the international location of innovation, en Giersch, H., (comp.), Emerging Technologies: Consequences for Economic Growth, Structural Change and Unemployment, jcb Mohr, Tubingen.
  78. Pearce, R. D. (1989), The Internationalisation of Research and Development by Multinational Enterprises, Londres, Macmillan.
  79. Pearce, R. D. (1999), “Decentralized R&D and strategic competitiveness: Globalised approaches to generation and use of technology in multinational enterprises”, Research Policy, núm. 28, pp. 157-178.
  80. Pérez, C. (1985), “Micro-electronics, Long Waves and World Structural Change: New Perspectives for Developing Countries”, World Development, Vol. 13, núm. 3, pp. 441-463.
  81. Pérez, C. (2002), Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, Edward Eldgar, Cheltenham, Reino Unido.
  82. Pilat, D. (2004), “The ict productivity paradox: insights from micro-data”, Economic Studies, ocde, núm. 38, 2004/1.
  83. Porter, M. (1990), “The Competitive Advantage of Nations”, Free Press, Nueva York, Macmillan.
  84. Quah, D. (1996), “Twin peaks: growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics”, Economic Journal, núm. 106, pp. 1045-1055.
  85. Quah, D., (1997), “Empirics for growth and distribution: stratification, polarization and convergence clubs”, Journal of Economic Growth, núm. 2, pp. 27-59.
  86. Ricyt (2000), “El estado de la ciencia: Principales indicadores de ciencia y tecnología iberoamericanos/interamericanos”, Buenos Aires.
  87. Rosenberg, N. (1982), Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics, Cambdridge University Press.
  88. Rosenberg, N., L. E. Birdzell Jr. (1987), How the West Grew Rich, Nueva York, Ed. Basic Books.
  89. Schumpeter, J. A. (1939), Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process, Nueva York, McGraw-Hill.
  90. Soete, L., y B. Verspagen (1993), “Technology and growth: the complex dynamics of catching up, faling behind and taking over”, en Szirmai, A., B. van Ark y D. Pilat (comps.), Explaining Economic Growth, Ámsterdam, Elsevier Science Publishers.
  91. Solow, R. (1987), “We’d Better Watch Out”, New York Times Book Review, julio.
  92. UNCTDA (2006), Information Economy Report 2006, The Development Perspective, Naciones
  93. Unidas.
  94. Van Ark, B., y R. H. McGuckin (1999), “International comparisons of labor productivity
  95. and per capita income”, Monthly Labor Review, julio, pp. 33-41.
  96. Van Ark, B. (2002), “Measuring the new economy: an international comparison”, Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 48, pp. 1-14.
  97. Van Ark, B., R. Inklaar, y R. H. McGuckin (2003), “Changing gear’: productivity, ict and service industries: Europe and the United States”, en Christensen, J. F., y P. Maskell (comps.), The Industrial Dynamics of the New Digital Economy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
  98. Verspagen, B. (1991), “A new empirical approach to catching up or falling behind”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, núm. 2, pp. 359-380.
  99. Verspagen, B. (1993), Uneven Growth between Interdependent Economies: an Evolutionary View on Technology Gaps, Trade, and Growth, Ashgate Pub, Reino Unido, Avebury, Aldershot.
  100. Vincenti, W.G. (1990), What Engineers Know and How They Know It, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, MD.