Núm. 41 (2014)
Artículos

Determinantes de los precios reales del petróleo y su impacto sobre las principales variables macroeconómicas: EU, España, Noruega y Argentina

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  • Luis N. Lanteri
Luis N. Lanteri
Biografía
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24275/ETYPUAM/NE/412014/Lanteri
Publicado diciembre 16, 2014
Palabras clave
  • real oil prices,
  • macroeconomic determinants,
  • economic activity and employment,
  • SVAR,
  • non-lineal models
Aviso de derechos de autor/a

Resumen

En este trabajo se analizan los principales determinantes macroeconómicos de los precios reales del petróleo (crecimiento mundial, política monetaria, tipo de cambio del dólar). Asimismo, se evalúan empíricamente el impacto de los cambios en los precios del petróleo sobre la actividad económica, el empleo y los precios domésticos en algunos países importadores netos (Estados Unidos y España), exportadores (Noruega) y autosuficientes en materia petrolífera (Argentina). El trabajo emplea modelos SVAR, con restricciones de corto plazo, para un periodo que abarca las últimas cuatro décadas. Los resultados muestran que, para los países importadores, los efectos de los incrementos de precios sobre el crecimiento del PIB real y el empleo difieren de los efectos que generan las caídas de los precios del crudo.
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